Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Blind Money

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Treasury Department discriminates against millions of Americans who are blind or have poor vision by printing paper money that makes it impossible for them to distinguish between denominations, a federal appeals court ruled on Tuesday.

By a 2-1 vote, the court upheld a ruling by U.S. District Judge James Robertson in a lawsuit filed by the American Council of the Blind seeking to force the department to redesign the U.S. paper currency.

The group has proposed several possible changes, including different sized bills for different denominations, embossed dots and raised printing. The court called such accommodations reasonable, effective and feasible.

The council accused the department and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of violating the Rehabilitation Act, which was meant to ensure that people with disabilities can live independently and fully participate in society.

The court rejected the Treasury Department's arguments that accommodating the group's proposals would impose a costly and undue burden on the government.

The appeals court sent the case back to Robertson to decide on the specific steps to be taken in granting the group's request for relief.

"A large majority of other currency systems have accommodated the visually impaired, and the secretary does not explain why U.S. currency should be any different," Judge Judith Rogers wrote in the appeal court's opinion.

Rogers said millions of individuals with visual impairment face daily obstacles in using U.S. paper currency. She cited a 1995 study that found that more than 3.7 million Americans are visually impaired, of whom 200,000 are blind.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Bet on Black


Yesterday RIM made a slam dunk, with its latest shot into the arm of the wireless PDA customer. This new addictive toy is already turning heads. This comes on the heels of Blackberry's most successful entries the Pearl and the Curve. Blackberry got it right this time, or at least closer to right. They clearly are moving towards revolution and away form evolution.

The Bold, as its being called is feature rich and still manages to be small in size. Also it allows users to sync with iTunes; the addition of an expandable microSD slot will allow the Bold to double as a media player. Business people can now spend even less time with their families and more time with the Blackberry.

The unveiling is even more interesting because AT&T will have the exclusive rights to market the RIM handset when it is available in the U.S. later this year. AT&T already has exclusive U.S. rights to Apple's iPhone and a new high-speed version of the Apple handset is expected to be unveiled next month. Both devices are slated to operate on 3G high-speed UMTS/HSDPA networks.

RIM trumpeted the consumer features of the Bold, noting its 2 megapixel camera and video recording capability.

"While it is designed to meet the extensive requirements of the business professional during the day, the BlackBerry Bold smartphone also caters to the business person's consumer side," RIM's announcement stated. In a nod to Apple, RIM observed that BlackBerry Bold Media Sync users can sync with Apple's iTunes. The RIM handset also features several multimedia elements. The handset has dual stereo speakers and includes Roxio Media Manager and Roxio PhotoSuite 9 LE.

Let's wait and see how long it takes Blackberry to get a CDMA version off the shelf. The announcment of this will make the stock price jump over the next few months. If you dont get in now, you will miss the Curve. Do not wait to see the sales numbers, because iPhone is still king and migration takes longer than expected. Plus BlackBerry has experienced numerous delays with releases in the past.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Luck of the Irish?

Its a very un-American thought to think that Budweiser be brewed anywhere else in the world. While Bud has the right to sell it product to the masses, it should be crafted on US land with US water (US labor optional).

So the fact that is appears likely that Diageo will on Friday announce plans for restructuring its Irish Guinnessbusiness, is anti-Irish. This restructuring could potentially include closing most of its historic brewing site in Dublin.

The drinks group has been struggling with falling sales of Guinness in Ireland and the UK in recent years, and Paul Walsh, Diageo’s chief executive, has said "the stout’s future lies outside Ireland and Britain." For this blasphemous quote alone, the CEO whould be flogged and banned form every pub in the UK.

It is claimed that Nigeria has overtaken Ireland to be the biggest market for Guinness.Guinness has been made for nearly 250 years at the St James’s Gate brewery in Dublin, but rising property values have led Diageo to consider selling the site. However, with a 250 year history I am sure that the Crown can do something about the taxes. Additionally its a historical site, so why does the property value even come into play? Would walt say, "the price of land is too high in Anaheim, so lets move."

Estimates put a value of up to €1bn (£787m) on the 56-acre Dublin site on the south quays of the river Liffey. The Dublin brewery produces some 500m litres of the stout every year, half of which is exported. If taxes aren't an issue, and this is a pure greed thing, then sell your soul for a few pounds. The bottom line will not be affected that greatly, but Diageo has the chance to preserve history.

A better idea would be for Diageo to build a new brewery on a site at Balbriggan, north of Dublin, while keeping some activity at St James’s Gate as a tourist attraction.

Diageo on Thursday said in a trading update that its sales were in line with expectations, with organic sales rising 7 per cent in the nine months to March 31. The company is sticking with its previous guidance of 9 per cent growth in full-year operating profits for the year to June 30.

Analysts said the guidance showed Diageo remains confident of withstanding a downturn in consumer spending in the US, the world’s biggest spirits market.

Diageo’s shares fell 14p to £10.28, and with leadership like this combined with poor marketing the stock price will continue to fall. It doesn't take an analyst to figure out that spirits are recession proof, and beer is cheap. It saddens me when corporations sell out simply for an uncertain buck. Does anyone think that the Nigerians will take pride in brewing Irish beer, no but they will get shitfaced.

Ireland has a rich tradition of making distilled beverages, I am not so sure if Nigeria has that same lore. Diageo need to look internally and realize that they can sustain market fluctuations, and there is no need to panic.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Gas-Tax


In times like these politics flirts with economics, and we are forced to examine why our world leaders are not finance majors. While it should not be a requirement, it should be a requirement that you consult with a finance guru before making dumb statements. A politician said over the weekend, that if America gave its citizens relief form high gas prices by suspending the gas-tax, that that may lead to increased demand and effectively squeeze supply therefore leading to even higher prices.

Wow is that a dumb thought. I don't know anyone who wouldn't welcome an 18.3 cents per gallon break the next time they fill up. And what makes this even better is that we can force the oil companies to re-pay the government the lost revenue. Exxon, BP, and Shell are not hurting for cash. Let's take a lesson from the Chinese, play by our rules or get out.

Back to the politics of it all, Obama called the gas-tax holiday a ``classic Washington gimmick'' that would do little to help consumers. Clinton said her plan would provide much-needed relief and her campaign said the Illinois senator's opposition shows he's out of touch with average Americans.

The Democratic presidential candidates made hour-long appearances on Sunday morning talk shows as they make a final push for voters in Indiana and North Carolina. Clinton is counting on winning the two states to maintain the momentum she gained with her Pennsylvania victory last month, while Obama is seeking to prove he can appeal to blue-collar voters.

The candidates also traded jabs over Clinton's threats to ``obliterate'' Iran if the Islamic state attacks Israel, while Obama distanced himself from Jeremiah Wright, saying his former pastor appears to be enjoying the media spotlight.

Obama said Clinton is pandering to primary voters by pushing a summer gas-tax moratorium that would do little to help consumers

Recent History

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina and the devastation that has followed, consumers are feeling the economic consequences of the disaster. Record gasoline prices are constantly in the headlines, which leaves many asking why prices are so high. While supply and demand are the primary determinants of gasoline prices, a significant portion of the price consumers pay at the pump can be attributed to gasoline taxes. In fact, the federal gas tax alone equals 18.4 cents for every gallon purchased.

In 1932, the federal government imposed the first federal gas tax. It began as a temporary levy with a rate of just 1 cent per gallon. Over the years, the tax burden has increased significantly. The Revenue Act of 1941 made the federal gas tax permanent and increased the rate to 1.5 cents per gallon to help fund the war effort. A decade later in 1951, the tax was increased to 2 cents per gallon to assist in the funding of the Korean War.

After President Eisenhower’s idea of an interstate highway system had been instituted, the federal gas tax was raised to 4 cents per gallon in 1959. As recent as 1981, the federal gas tax remained at 4 cents per gallon. Significant tax increases in 1982, 1990 and 1993 increased the federal gas tax by 14.4 cents per gallon, or 360 percent from 1981 levels.

In 1919, Oregon became the first state in the nation to place a tax on gasoline and every state has subsequently adopted this form of taxation. This year, according to the Energy Information Administration the average state gas tax is 20.8 cents per gallon. In addition to statewide taxes, often consumers pay local excise taxes on gasoline purchases

Friday, May 2, 2008

Bank Guarantees

Bank Guarantees are used primarily to finance trade. In this posting I will describe the aspects of a Bank Guarantee that make it a tradable security and why this trading activity attracts opportunists (read Intermediaries) in spades to get a piece of the action of this lucrative trade.

The large majority of Bank Guarantees issued by major trading banks worldwide have a term of just over a year (more specifically 1 year and 1 day). A bank will issue a bank guarantee to their (primarily corporate) clients based on the clients’ credit worthiness and their relationship with the bank. The client typically puts up between 50 to 60% of the face value of the bank guarantee. In other words, a bank may issue a bank guarantee of a certain face value to a client against a cash deposit by that client of between 50 to 60% of that face value. It is this feature of a bank guarantee of being issued at a discount to face value that makes it similar to a zero coupon bond and makes it a tradeable security.

The clients of a bank guarantee are large major trading corporations such as Nike or Apple and the face values of issued bank guarantees are typically US$ 500 million and up although they can certainly be issued with a face value of amounts lower than this. In addition to providing a negotiable instrument to transact international trade for these clients, the bank guarantee is also used by these clients as a means of raising extra capital by selling the bank guarantee.

The clients to whom the bank guarantee is issued may sell that bank guarantee to a third party (such as a securities house like Morgan Stanley) with a markup (usually 10 to 20%). The third party may then sell the bank guarantee to another private party (such as a pension fund) with another markup (again 10 to 20%). This private party may then choose to hold on to the bank guarantee and redeem it for full face value at maturity (at the end of the 1 year and 1 day period). It is important to note that the issuing banks themselves never enter into agreements to sell their financial instruments and a third party buyer’s bank will not enter into an agreement to purchase the financial instrument. The private agreement to trade the bank guarantee is always between the buyer and the seller. No banker or securities officer will act on behalf of the buyer or seller. That being said, this is where informed intermediaries come into the picture arranging private buy/sell transactions between buyers and sellers for a “consulting fee” of typically 1% of the transaction amount for the buyers and sellers representatives. When the face value of the bank guarantee is US$ 500 million in multiple tranches, the “consulting fee” for the introducing intermediaries can be a king’s ransom indeed. This is exactly what attracts the hoards of intermediaries and the broker chains.

Since Bank Guarantees are issued by banks to their clients for the first time (known as “fresh cut” bank guarantees in industry jargon), they do not appear on any Central Securities Depository screens such as DTC or Euroclear for screening, authentication, or settlement. The MT-103 is used to send a conditional SWIFT transfer of cash funds used for fresh cut bank guarantees. Hence settlement of payments for Bank Guarantees must be transacted through NON-Euroclear Delivery Versus Payment (DVP) procedures agreed in advance by transacting parties. Non-Euroclear DVP Protocol Settlement Procedures do not require such things demanded by intermediaries such as proof of funds, proof of capability, financial capability letter, MT-760 (Bank Guarantee), MT-543 (Bank Commitment), or MT-799 (Confirmation of funds on deposit). This is handled in the bank to bank call, after the contract between buyer and seller is signed and in place. Bank to bank confirmation of funds replaces any need for POF.

Subsequent sales of Bank Guarantees to third parties make them a “seasoned instrument”. There is no such thing as a “slightly seasoned instrument”. Bank Guarantee Instruments are either “fresh cut” which is a new issue to the bank's client that has never been sold to anyone yet or registered with a buyer or they are “seasoned” which is an instrument that has already had a registered owner. The prices of these seasoned instruments depends on the quality of the issuing bank (Bank Guarantees issued by AAA+ banks command a premium) and may be sold typically at 85 to 97% of the face value in these subsequent sales. If Bank Guarantees are sold to securities houses in subsequent sales, the securities houses may register the Bank Guarantee as a security and issue them a CUSIP or ISIN number but this is not the norm.

The key is that the initial applicant of the BG must, at some agreed upon later date, pay the issuing bank additional money No bank would allow a client to earn 40-50% per year in interest. However when the BG is sold to a 3rd party teh applicant may use the funds raised for investments and still pay the bank the money due at the end of the term.