Just a few weeks ago Brazil's President came on Fox News and said that he wanted Brazil to get into the World oil market, and now this? Brazil helped push oil prices up $5 to a new record - $147 a barrel on Friday as strike threats and deepening geopolitical tensions raised fears over the safety of supplies.
Having rallied more than $5 overnight, Brent crude rose a further $5.22 to $147.25 a barrel.
A union of employees from Petrobras, the Brazilian state-controlled oil company, in the Campos basin – where 80 per cent of Brazil’s oil is produced – said that they would shut down rigs to press for better pay.
When Petrobras employees refused to work for five days in 2001, oil production fell sharply and Brazil had to import extra oil. However, since then Petrobras and the unions have resolved their disputes without severe stoppages.
Oil also got a boost from news that the main militant group in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta was abandoning a ceasefire in response to Britain’s offer to help tackle lawlessness in the area.
Militants have helped cut Nigeria’s oil exports by more than 20 per cent since 2006 by attacking pipelines and other installations. It seems that we are colonializing the wrong part of the world, in a feeble attempt to stabalize oil prices and production.
News that Iran test-fired more missiles on Thursday had little impact on the oil market. MF Global said traders were increasingly reluctant to bid up prices on “what if?” headlines. Crude hit a record above $145 a barrel last week on speculation about conflict between the west and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast that world oil demand would rise by 1.3m barrels per day annually to 2012 before easing to 1.2m bpd in the longer term.
In its World Oil Outlook 2008, Opec said that the key to future oil demand growth would be transport, especially in developing countries. The oil cartel said almost $800bn would have to be invested in increasing refinery capacity to meet the additional demand expected by 2030.
The need for oil from Opec countries will soon fall, the International Energy Agency said Thursday, forecasting global oil demand growth would slow next year while production would rise.
The IEA increased its forecast for 2008 oil demand by 80,000 barrels a day, or 0.1 per cent, to 86.85m barrels a day.
Showing posts with label crude oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crude oil. Show all posts
Friday, July 11, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
Oil 3 of 3
While teh crude markets are often that - crude and privative. The laws of oligopoly do not outweigh the simply demand curve; even though it is not always evident
New technology
Advanced methods of locating and extracting crude will inevitable lead to more complete exploitation of reserves. On average only 1/3 of the available crude in a single location is ever extracted. With new technological advances means that we can re-visit already "tapped out" fields.
Global Downturn
The USA has seen a recession, at least it appears that way, and if China's (and India) industrial revolution begins to peak then the need will also ease. Additionally, these emerging markets realize that their needs are a ecological drain, and they too will eventually become more serious about alternative energy sources.
Exploration
Offshore drilling; the Arctic Circle; Brazil; Gulf of Mexico; Nigeria, Sudan; and even the bottom of the Ocean
Substitutes
Economist estimate that by the year 2012 the USA will be giving farmers $92 billions dollars a year in subsidies, and this is just in the ethanol arena. Ethanol is in abundant supply, and there are numerous way to produce it. This will help curb our need for crude. Additionally, the next generation of nuclear reactors are on the drawing boards of the World's top scientific minds as we speak; those same scientist are also thinking of ways ti create synthetic crude. They have already made diamonds, oil is next.
I am in no way predicting that we will ever see prices near what we did in the late 80s and early 90s, when you could stilll get change for a buck and a gallon of gas, but I am saying that the market will eventually correct itself. We have used over 1 trillion barrels of oil since the mind 50s, and there may be 3 trillion barrels left, but just has human energy was passed over for animals, and animal power was elicpsed by steam, crude too will meet its match - one day, and when it does we can all fill our car up for less than $25 again.
New technology
Advanced methods of locating and extracting crude will inevitable lead to more complete exploitation of reserves. On average only 1/3 of the available crude in a single location is ever extracted. With new technological advances means that we can re-visit already "tapped out" fields.
Global Downturn
The USA has seen a recession, at least it appears that way, and if China's (and India) industrial revolution begins to peak then the need will also ease. Additionally, these emerging markets realize that their needs are a ecological drain, and they too will eventually become more serious about alternative energy sources.
Exploration
Offshore drilling; the Arctic Circle; Brazil; Gulf of Mexico; Nigeria, Sudan; and even the bottom of the Ocean
Substitutes
Economist estimate that by the year 2012 the USA will be giving farmers $92 billions dollars a year in subsidies, and this is just in the ethanol arena. Ethanol is in abundant supply, and there are numerous way to produce it. This will help curb our need for crude. Additionally, the next generation of nuclear reactors are on the drawing boards of the World's top scientific minds as we speak; those same scientist are also thinking of ways ti create synthetic crude. They have already made diamonds, oil is next.
I am in no way predicting that we will ever see prices near what we did in the late 80s and early 90s, when you could stilll get change for a buck and a gallon of gas, but I am saying that the market will eventually correct itself. We have used over 1 trillion barrels of oil since the mind 50s, and there may be 3 trillion barrels left, but just has human energy was passed over for animals, and animal power was elicpsed by steam, crude too will meet its match - one day, and when it does we can all fill our car up for less than $25 again.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Why oil prices will fall 2 of 3
With prices close to all-time inflation adjusted record, energy companies, governments, prospectors, and common citizens are investing heavily into facilities that generate crude and crude substitutes. Consumers of fuel oil and petrol products are starting to use their brains and economize; over time, these changes in behavior will shift the balance of power in the favour of the consumer. When this demand curve begins to shift an oil glut will emerge.
Across the country in states like Texas, Ohio, California, and Wyoming rusted well are coming back online and beginning to pump crude. Further the Chinese, is pursuing exploration with African nations Sudan, Chad, and the Congo. So the explotation of reserves will continue. Also, in Alberta, Canada Shell and other big wigs are developing massive strip mines to dig out tar sand. Tar sand can be refined into petroleum for about $30 per barrel.
It was just a few short years ago, when major energy giants were slashing their exploration budgets and cutting jobs; now those positions are en vouge again and its time to dig.
Across the country in states like Texas, Ohio, California, and Wyoming rusted well are coming back online and beginning to pump crude. Further the Chinese, is pursuing exploration with African nations Sudan, Chad, and the Congo. So the explotation of reserves will continue. Also, in Alberta, Canada Shell and other big wigs are developing massive strip mines to dig out tar sand. Tar sand can be refined into petroleum for about $30 per barrel.
It was just a few short years ago, when major energy giants were slashing their exploration budgets and cutting jobs; now those positions are en vouge again and its time to dig.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Bump up the volume
Last week crude oil prices dropped on speculation that OPEC would increase oil production; what were the experts thinking? For months now OPEC has made it clear that, in their (collective) mind they felt no connection with the record high crude prices. In fact, Iran and Venezuela voiced their opposition to any sort of a production increase; while the number-one producer Saudi Arabia was more amenable to a 500,000 barrel-a-day hike.
In the end OPEC left its output unchanged on Wednesday, blaming "speculative activity" for pushing up the price of oil and insisting that the market was well-supplied. Although OPEC promised to review this decision at its next meeting in February 2008, the prospect of a winter without a helping hand from the 13-member organization seemed to fuel exactly the kind of "speculative activity" it spoke out against.
In reality OPEC is correct. The issue is not production rather it is refinery capacity. Cruse production is not the issue because no matter how much is in the market place it can only be used once biproducts have been produced. I have not seen a car yet that runs on light crude. The fact is simple: U.S. refineries cannot cope with the ever-increasing demand of US cosumers. Its time for a infrastructure upgrade.
Fine line
Fineline Properties.com Inc. (www.finelineproperties.com) has teamed up with IPnetwork.com (www.ipnetwork.com), the Internet's premier business-to-business intellectual property & licensing marketplace.
Fineline's entire product line of new cartoon characters are marketed within the IPnetwork.com Web site, offering online bidding of Fineline's library of more than 200 characters. In addition, IPnetwork.com provides domestic and international exposure through a variety of marketing campaigns and tradeshows.
In the end OPEC left its output unchanged on Wednesday, blaming "speculative activity" for pushing up the price of oil and insisting that the market was well-supplied. Although OPEC promised to review this decision at its next meeting in February 2008, the prospect of a winter without a helping hand from the 13-member organization seemed to fuel exactly the kind of "speculative activity" it spoke out against.
In reality OPEC is correct. The issue is not production rather it is refinery capacity. Cruse production is not the issue because no matter how much is in the market place it can only be used once biproducts have been produced. I have not seen a car yet that runs on light crude. The fact is simple: U.S. refineries cannot cope with the ever-increasing demand of US cosumers. Its time for a infrastructure upgrade.
Fine line
Fineline Properties.com Inc. (www.finelineproperties.com) has teamed up with IPnetwork.com (www.ipnetwork.com), the Internet's premier business-to-business intellectual property & licensing marketplace.
Fineline's entire product line of new cartoon characters are marketed within the IPnetwork.com Web site, offering online bidding of Fineline's library of more than 200 characters. In addition, IPnetwork.com provides domestic and international exposure through a variety of marketing campaigns and tradeshows.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Hello EUro
OPEC has been seriously considering moving to a euro backed petroleum industry, as opposed to US dollar backed, and there are numerous valid economic reasons for a [potential] shift.
As the dollar's rate of exchange continues to fall against the world's major currencies, there has been much speculation about the likely knock-on effect. One area receiving a lot of attention is crude oil in general, and OPEC in particular.
It has been suggested that OPEC may begin pricing crude oil in terms of the euro, and further, that OPEC may actually begin invoicing its crude oil exports in terms of euros. This latter step would require shifting out of dollars, with OPEC receiving euros in payment.
On November 6th of 2000 Iraq became the first country to receive all of its oil export payments in euros instead of American dollars. This switch was estimated to cost Iraq $270 million dollars, but Iraq had since actually come out on top due to the rise in the value of the euro, which was actually probably influenced by Iraq’s decision to use the euro as its foreign exchange currency. At the time of the switch Iraq was selling over $60 million in crude oil a day so its easy to see that the change to the use of the euro could have a positive effect on the value of the euro.
The euro hit another all-time high against the dollar overnight on growing concerns the mortgage mess will force the
Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Euros traded as high as $1.4855 earlier in the session before pulling back to $1.4823 recently. That was still up from $1.4812 late Tuesday.
As the dollar's rate of exchange continues to fall against the world's major currencies, there has been much speculation about the likely knock-on effect. One area receiving a lot of attention is crude oil in general, and OPEC in particular.
It has been suggested that OPEC may begin pricing crude oil in terms of the euro, and further, that OPEC may actually begin invoicing its crude oil exports in terms of euros. This latter step would require shifting out of dollars, with OPEC receiving euros in payment.
On November 6th of 2000 Iraq became the first country to receive all of its oil export payments in euros instead of American dollars. This switch was estimated to cost Iraq $270 million dollars, but Iraq had since actually come out on top due to the rise in the value of the euro, which was actually probably influenced by Iraq’s decision to use the euro as its foreign exchange currency. At the time of the switch Iraq was selling over $60 million in crude oil a day so its easy to see that the change to the use of the euro could have a positive effect on the value of the euro.
The euro hit another all-time high against the dollar overnight on growing concerns the mortgage mess will force the
Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Euros traded as high as $1.4855 earlier in the session before pulling back to $1.4823 recently. That was still up from $1.4812 late Tuesday.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Crude Awakening 2
Oil prices continue to spike, and there is no solid economic reason to justify the rise. Oil prices surpassed $90 a barrel for the first time in after-hours trading in New York before slipping back Friday in Asia.
What does this mean for consumers? Not only will you see prices at the pump rise, but expect heating oil and natural gas to rise as well - purely on speculation. The general public should not get upset with OPEC, the usual suspect has nothing to do with this rise.
Investors are being drawn to energy futures as a hedge against the weakening U.S. dollar. That, plus worries over tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, has lifted crude oil prices to new records for five straight days.
Data released in recent weeks shows speculative buying of oil futures is on the rise. Many analysts believe the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand do not support oil prices of $90 a barrel.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Department reported that oil and gasoline supplies rose more than expected last week, countering suggestions that supplies are tight. However, crude supplies at the closely watched Nymex delivery point of Cushing, Okla., fell last week, and several reports in recent days have predicted oil supplies will tighten in the fourth quarter.
Thursday was the fifth day in a row crude prices have set new records. The new record has taken the price of oil nearer, but still below, inflation-adjusted highs hit in early 1980. Depending on the adjustment, a $38 barrel of oil in 1980 would be worth $96 to more than $101 today.
November natural gas futures fell 1.4 cents to settle at $7.360 per 1,000 cubic feet as investors shrugged off an Energy Department report that inventories rose by 39 billion cubic feet last week, less than analysts had expected. Supplies are high by historical standards.
For the savvy futures investor, now is a good time to look at oil; the price will climb to just above $100 per barrel, before this unctious bubble burst. Another gppd place to look on the commodities side is OJ, and not in Las Vegas.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday estimated Florida would produce 168 million orange boxes for the 2007-08 season, and growers are happy about it.
However, in Australia's Valencia orange crop for 2007 is tipped to be the smallest in over three decades. Those attending the National Orange Forum in Mildura (Victoria) on 9 October 2007 were told the crop would total just 194,000 tonnes by Australian Citrus Growers, down 19,000 tonnes on its initial forecast of 213,000 tonnes. The small crop, attributed to factors such as the drought and low water allocation, may mean that fruit juice processors will run out of supplies, while exports of ValenciaA's will be severely restricted.
The Aussie's along with teh risk of disease in FLA will greatly affect the supply curve, and this will lead to increased prices. It is still unclear if this will affect customers at the local grocery store, but it will affect the "market".
What does this mean for consumers? Not only will you see prices at the pump rise, but expect heating oil and natural gas to rise as well - purely on speculation. The general public should not get upset with OPEC, the usual suspect has nothing to do with this rise.
Investors are being drawn to energy futures as a hedge against the weakening U.S. dollar. That, plus worries over tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, has lifted crude oil prices to new records for five straight days.
Data released in recent weeks shows speculative buying of oil futures is on the rise. Many analysts believe the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand do not support oil prices of $90 a barrel.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Department reported that oil and gasoline supplies rose more than expected last week, countering suggestions that supplies are tight. However, crude supplies at the closely watched Nymex delivery point of Cushing, Okla., fell last week, and several reports in recent days have predicted oil supplies will tighten in the fourth quarter.
Thursday was the fifth day in a row crude prices have set new records. The new record has taken the price of oil nearer, but still below, inflation-adjusted highs hit in early 1980. Depending on the adjustment, a $38 barrel of oil in 1980 would be worth $96 to more than $101 today.
November natural gas futures fell 1.4 cents to settle at $7.360 per 1,000 cubic feet as investors shrugged off an Energy Department report that inventories rose by 39 billion cubic feet last week, less than analysts had expected. Supplies are high by historical standards.
For the savvy futures investor, now is a good time to look at oil; the price will climb to just above $100 per barrel, before this unctious bubble burst. Another gppd place to look on the commodities side is OJ, and not in Las Vegas.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday estimated Florida would produce 168 million orange boxes for the 2007-08 season, and growers are happy about it.
However, in Australia's Valencia orange crop for 2007 is tipped to be the smallest in over three decades. Those attending the National Orange Forum in Mildura (Victoria) on 9 October 2007 were told the crop would total just 194,000 tonnes by Australian Citrus Growers, down 19,000 tonnes on its initial forecast of 213,000 tonnes. The small crop, attributed to factors such as the drought and low water allocation, may mean that fruit juice processors will run out of supplies, while exports of ValenciaA's will be severely restricted.
The Aussie's along with teh risk of disease in FLA will greatly affect the supply curve, and this will lead to increased prices. It is still unclear if this will affect customers at the local grocery store, but it will affect the "market".
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Pay Less at the Pump?
OPEC Speaks
Even though the United States does not get the majority of its crude oil from the Middle East (only about 15% comes from Saudi Arabia), The USA does receive more than 50% of its crude oil imports from OPEC. With imports that high, its not hard to see why the US oil market is still has an indurate link to the OPEC cartel. It just a fact of life. The USA's largest crude importers are Canada and Mexico (both whom are non-OPEC countries), but they are followed closely by Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Logistically, this makes sense, it is easier to ship form Canada then it is from Kuwait.
However, good news from from the sandy pond region today; Kuwait's Oil Minister, acting Spokesman for OPEC, announced today that OPEC would increase crude production by 500,000 barrels per day. This should ease oil futures and loosen up prices in about 30 days.
Another falsehood that many American's believe is that OPEC is made up of only Middle Eastern countries, this simply is not true. The countries that comprise OPEC: Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, The United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
Even though the United States does not get the majority of its crude oil from the Middle East (only about 15% comes from Saudi Arabia), The USA does receive more than 50% of its crude oil imports from OPEC. With imports that high, its not hard to see why the US oil market is still has an indurate link to the OPEC cartel. It just a fact of life. The USA's largest crude importers are Canada and Mexico (both whom are non-OPEC countries), but they are followed closely by Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Logistically, this makes sense, it is easier to ship form Canada then it is from Kuwait.
However, good news from from the sandy pond region today; Kuwait's Oil Minister, acting Spokesman for OPEC, announced today that OPEC would increase crude production by 500,000 barrels per day. This should ease oil futures and loosen up prices in about 30 days.
Another falsehood that many American's believe is that OPEC is made up of only Middle Eastern countries, this simply is not true. The countries that comprise OPEC: Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, The United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Today's Picks
VMWare Inc (VMW): Virtual is the new real, or so it seems. A quick chart and y
Apple (APPL): The new iPOD release was flawlessly timed, school has just started for the youth of America, and no teenage wants to be left behind. Expect to see sales surge - again - in the coming months. You have birthdays and holidays rapidly approaching.
Oracle (ORCL): Here they go again buying another company. I am not sure if they are good for competition or they stiffle it. But they bought a UK (Ireland) internet company for an undisclosed amount of money this week. Expect internations number to surge
Tullow Oil: There is more oil in Africa then everyone thought
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