Friday, January 23, 2009

Obama keeps his blackberry


WASHINGTON – The first family settled into their new lives in the White House on Thursday as President Barack Obama won an important personal victory: He gets to keep his BlackBerry.

Obama will be the first sitting president to use e-mail, and he has been reluctant to part with his ever-present handheld device. Its use will be limited to keeping in touch with senior staff and personal friends, said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.

And though Gibbs said Obama had to ask at one point where to go next in his "pretty big house," he also said the president was enjoying living above the store and had time for dinner with the family on Wednesday.

"I think that obviously means a lot to him as a father," Gibbs said.

It was back to business for daughters Sasha and Malia, too, who returned to classes at the private Sidwell Friends School on Thursday.

The girls were allowed to play hooky Wednesday after a late-night scavenger hunt at the White House that ended when they opened a door and found their favorite band, the Jonas Brothers.

But two days of frivolity was, apparently, enough. First lady Michelle Obama has worked hard to maintain a strong routine for Sasha, 7, and Malia, 10.

"I know the family's moved now three times in only a few weeks. But if you know them and you know their family, they've had a routine for a long time," Gibbs said. "This is a monumental testament to Michelle."

The monumental testament to her husband? He won the BlackBerry battle.

Gibbs joked that the development was "almost as exciting as the presidential dog." He poked fun at the White House press corps for stirring at the news during his briefing. "Let's make sure the pen still works."

But the BlackBerry victory is a big concession. Obama said earlier that he was working with the Secret Service, lawyers and White House staff to keep the device.

Gibbs said the president will limit its use, and security has been enhanced to ensure that Obama can communicate in a way that's protected. Only a small number of senior staff members and personal friends would be given his e-mail address.

Previous presidents chose not to use e-mail because it can be subpoenaed by Congress and courts and may be subject to public records laws. And Gibbs said the presumption from the White House counsel's office is that Obama's e-mails will be subject to the Presidential Records Act, which requires the National Archives to preserve presidential records.

But he also said there are exceptions for "strictly personal communications."

Obama has often been seen checking his e-mail on his handheld device, even when it meant getting his hands slapped by Michelle during his daughter's soccer game.

Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton didn't e-mail while in office, although Bush was an active e-mailer before becoming president.

That was before the era of the BlackBerry, a device now ubiquitous in Washington and precious to Obama. When asked by The Associated Press about his worst habit during the campaign, Obama responded, "Checking my BlackBerry."

Gibbs said the president believes that using the device is an effective way to keep in touch with people without "getting stuck in a bubble."

He said Obama's e-mails to him personally have ranged "from something that's very strictly business to, why did my football team perform so miserably on either any given Saturday or any given Sunday?"

Those who have access to the president's e-mail will be briefed about appropriate communications, Gibbs said, without offering specifics.

So the president who gave up smoking — mostly — managed to avoid withdrawal from his other addiction — mostly.

All in all, Gibbs said, Obama looked comfortable in his new surroundings.

"They're very much the same four people that I met five years ago when I went to work for them," he said, before conceding, "Obviously, it's a little different."

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Mad off

As a fund manager, its been hard for me not to weigh in on the Madoff scandle, but as a human, I find it hard not to. Option collars are a very simple (to the savvy) way to control losses and moderate gains. Berrnie Madoff was a very bight man, in fact he was once the chairman of NASDAQ, but why isn't he in jail?

Bernie Madoff's investment fund may never have executed a single trade, industry officials say, suggesting detailed statements mailed to investors each month may have been an elaborate mirage in a $50 billion fraud.

An industry-run regulator for brokerage firms said on Thursday there was no record of Madoff's investment fund placing trades through his brokerage operation.

That means Madoff either placed trades through other brokerage firms, a move industry officials consider unlikely, or he was not executing trades at all.

"Our exams showed no evidence of trading on behalf of the investment advisor, no evidence of any customer statements being generated by the broker-dealer," said Herb Perone, spokesman for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

What perplexes me is that I can not get a non-solicitation past FINRA, but they missed this? The key to this scam was verticle integration. Madoff was a market maker, and he controlled the accountants, the brokers, the compliance department, and even the exchange. This is asad day for roberbarrons; it looks lik ethey are all theives.

Monday, January 5, 2009

Posion Apple

I think that many accross America were shocked to find out that their Microsoft Zune media players were experienceing Y2K-like problems on January 1, 2009. However, it was even more of a shocker to find out that this mysteriousn "bug" was caused by "The Man" AKA Aaple.

Confronted by a variety of Internet sources, Apple Inc. executives are admitting that the bug which crashed Microsoft Zune music players on New Year's Eve was the work of pranksters within their organization -- and say more tricks may be coming.

"Microsoft really needs to get a sense of humor," said an Apple executive, who spoke to CAP News by phone yesterday under condition of anonymity. He declined to say exactly how they executed the Zune crash, other than to say it involved a massive circuit board, some very skilled hackers and "lots of fuzzy navel Jell-O shots."

He did say that Apple did not have anyone "on the inside" at Microsoft to help them execute the prank. "We can't stand dealing with anybody over there," he said. "You know the PC in our Mac and PC commercials? They're all just like that."

Zune owners are crying foul over the crash, particularly given that it kept them from using their Zunes on New Year's Eve. "Yes, we're sure all the Zune owners were crushed at not being able to hear their ABBA and Carpenters songs when the clock struck 12," said the Apple exec. "I'm rolling my eyes now."

There were reports of complaints, however, including several New Year's Eve gatherings of Zune-owning accountants, engineers, IT technicians and others that had to go without music.

"We wound up just breaking the party up around 10 p.m.," said Neal Smerlitz, who plans the annual New Year's Eve gala for the Chess Lovers of San Bernadino, a California hobbyist group, all of whose members are Zune owners. "Although come to think of it, that's when it ended last year too."

The Apple executive also admitted that other pranks may be in the works. These include a plan to make Microsoft Word programs around the world type "Macs rule, PCs drool" no matter what letters are keyed in. Also, an Internet Explorer bug will make every Web page point to a video of Rick Astley singing "Never Gonna Give You Up."

"Let's face it, that never gets old," chuckled the exec.

He said they also considered a bug that would make the Vista operating system slow, clunky and incompatible with a score of programs, "but Microsoft did that themselves already!" The executive could then be heard cracking up and high-fiving his friends in the room.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs declined to comment on the Zune crash specifically, but did admit that Microsoft is notorious for its lack of humor. "Did you see those commercials with Jerry Seinfeld?" he asked. "They were about as funny as whatever disease it is that I have."

Next time Apple employees use company resources to take down their reval, let's hope the rest of Silicon Valley doesn't find out.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Eat Fruit

Over the past few weeks Apple (AAPL) has lost around 15% of its stock value. That makes this a good time to buy, and buy big. Apple is a bit price, its around $88/share, but when the market gets back to fundamentals it will climb up over $115/share.

Right now AAPL has 25 billion in the bank, and that is a nice stockpile to fund its research and development operations. While speculation continues about Steve Job's future role in the company, he has created an anti-establishment, anti_Microsoft juggernaut. Some of that R&D money is already paying dividends, like the improved iPod Nano. The new Nano has a great screen, better backlight, and an improved interface.

The other big news out of AAPL is the fact that they are now selling iPhones for less than $200 at Walmart. We believe that if Apple's push into Wal-Mart stores goes successfully, it will be creating a situation "to sell a relatively complex piece of computing to folks who may never have touched a computer, or who didn't think they'd ever want to carry one around with them." Further, this could drive a wedge between Apple and competitors Research In Motion and Palm, as the latter two have so far had a tough time selling their smartphones to non-corporate consumer types, a market which, for the most part, is dominated by Apple.

All of this is bad news for Blackberry and even worse news for Palm. The new Palm Centro has had a big marketing push over the Holidays, but it wont matter. The lack of push technology makes its too inefficient.

Also, a recent demographic shift in smartphone users from corporate users to individual consumers has created a margin issue at Research In Motion. As more than half of RIM's new subscriptions are now coming from consumers, the company now sees its gross profit falling from 45.6% to in the range of 40-41%.

Shares of Research In Motion are now down nearly 3% this week alone. Elsewhere in the sector, shares of Palm are down 3.4% to $3.10 and Nokia stock is also down 3.4% to $14.93. Meanwhile, shares of Apple, which initially traded up as much as 2%, are now up about 0.5% to $86.23.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

stay bullish

Yesterday was not real. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the securities firm that reported its first quarterly loss yesterday, fell 2.7 percent in Germany, while
International Business Machines Corp., the world’s largest provider of
computer services, dropped 2.9 percent.

I am bullish on GS, mainlly because it is over-valued, and not by a small amount, y at least 25%. If you can take a short position on the stock.

Futures suggested the S&P 500 will decline after a 5.1 percent rally
yesterday spurred by the Fed’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate
to as low as zero. The central bank’s decision came after simultaneous
recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan dragged the S&P 500 down
almost 45 percent from its 2007 record.

Following interest-rate cuts you always see an initial reaction and
then you get back to your senses. All the structural indicators, such as the economic cycle and profit outlook, remain negative.

Friday, December 12, 2008

GM?

The collapse of the automobile bailout plan raises the prospects of bankruptcy for General Motors and Chrysler.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 135.96 points (1.59 per cent) to 8429.13 in opening trades and the Nasdaq composite fell 14.45 points (0.96 per cent) to 1493.43.

The broad Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 13.43 points (1.54 per cent) to 860.16. ANd guess which stock is actually up, General Motors. AFter taking a beating early this morning, GM bounced back up, almost as if the market knew that a bailout (in some form) was on its way. Sahers should have taken a big hit, but they didn't, why? If GM were in Illinois I would assume corruption, but this time I think it is more global, simply put - speculation.

The White House said on Friday it would consider tapping a $US700 billion ($1.04 trillion) financial rescue fund "to prevent a collapse of troubled automakers" after lawmakers failed to pass an alternative.

On Wednesday Sen. George V. Voinovich, Ohio Republican and a leading supporter of the emergency measure, said that the bill didn't have the necessary Republican votes to pass Congress. And he was right.

If you are an average investor stay away from GM right now, it is not trading on fundamentals, its more emotion. If you are looking to short GM, stay away from it, because you just can't tell what will happen next. If you are an options trader, avoid GM like Bird Flu, it is toxic.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

When do you shower?

It seems to me that those American's who take a shower before they go in to work, like bankers and stock brokers got a better deal than those who shower after they get off of work, like can manufacturers. The Banks got $700,000,000,000+ and it has not helped the average American taxpayer one bit.

For a total cost of $450 billion (a savings of 250b) the US government could have given EVERY household in America a $150,000 stimulus check. Additionally, they could have taxed that money at a rate of 30%, thereby generating a 135b in tax revenue. Additionally, they could have put restrictions on how the funds were spent. For example, they could have mandated that no less than 50% of the gross amount be spent on existing debt. If a person had no existing debt then they would be forced to place the money into a government savings plan for a period of not less than 2 years.

Had the US government done this, the majority of American's would be current on their mortgages right now, and there would be no foreclosure crisis. Additionally car repossessions would go way down.

The remaining 50% of the gross stimulus amount could be used as the Household saw fit. I am confident that many people would buy new cars. That would help boost the auto industry.

But my bright ideas aside, the automakers are forced to beg for 15b (400 times less then what the Banks got) and they have a new Car Czar. Where is the Bank Czar? I guess the fact that the auto industry employees 3x as many people in America as the banking industry was not factored into the equation. This is not just about the manufacturing jobs, or the nation's ailing steel industry, which relys on the Big Three, or the scientist who invent new technologies like new soy-based foam.

Its clear that the government did not do this to save the economy, but rather to save big business, nsamely the banking business. There is no reason why billions of dollars is being spent and people are still being forced out of their homes. And better yet, why dont the banks lend money to the car makers?